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UBS identifies four catalysts that could break the Indian market's six-week consolidation, driven by high valuations and modest earnings growth. Key factors include improved consumer spending post-festive season, supportive fiscal and monetary policies, structural reforms after elections, and favorable global developments, particularly from the US. The banking sector shows promise despite FII outflows, while caution is advised for consumer discretionary stocks reliant on retail lending.
Jefferies has adopted a cautiously optimistic view on the Indian equity market, noting a significant increase in equity supply, which has reached $60 billion year-to-date. While maintaining a favorable outlook on banks, healthcare, telecom, and two-wheelers, the firm has downgraded the consumer staples sector to neutral and raised the IT sector rating to neutral. Despite strong domestic demand, Jefferies advises a cautious approach to equities in the near term.
Indian equity markets are experiencing a significant downturn, with the Nifty 50 and Sensex both dropping 3% last week. The Nifty has fallen below the 100-day EMA and the critical level of 24,200, prompting experts to predict a potential decline to 23,894 and further to 23,455. A "sell on rally" strategy is recommended, with particular attention on ICICI Bank's earnings reaction, alongside reports from Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharma, and Ambuja.
On October 28, around 180 companies, including Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharma, and Indian Oil, are set to report their Q2 earnings, impacting market sentiment. The Sensex fell by 663 points to 79,402.29, while the Nifty 50 dropped 219 points to 24,180.80, amid increased volatility. Analysts suggest that the Nifty may find support in the 23,900–23,950 range, with resistance levels at 24,500 and 24,700.
The Nifty 50 index has declined approximately 7 percent over the past month, driven by foreign portfolio investor selling and lackluster corporate earnings in India. In the upcoming week, shortened by the Diwali festival, key companies such as Bharti Airtel, Maruti Suzuki, and Sun Pharma will report their earnings for the September 2024 quarter.
Indian stock markets ended on a negative note on October 23, with the Sensex down 138.74 points at 80,081.98 and the Nifty down 36.60 points at 24,435.50, despite initial gains. The session was marked by volatility, with final hour selling pressure erasing earlier intraday gains. Among the top gainers were Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Auto, and Tech Mahindra, while M&M and Sun Pharma were among the notable losers.
SUN Pharma Distributors Ltd.
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The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
catalysts needed to end indian market consolidation phase according to ubs
Trent 10 2024
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